­Why France is Fracturing
...and not just France

rev.7, Dec. 14, 2018, 6:15pm
material added Aug.22, 2019

by Richard Harris

Here's food for thought, for those who want to know why France is exploding right now.

GASOLINE GOES 'BOOM'

The recent blow-up in France was triggered by a hike in the gasoline tax -- which hits everyone, and especially hits hard on the poor, the working class, and retirees. (Keep in mind that THEIR gasoline prices and taxes are far higher than ours -- upwards of $4.00 a gallon.)

It was part of a series of unpopular moves made by newly-elected President Macron -- a banker / businessman who had never been elected to any public office before -- in his desperate attempt to bring some restraint to an economy and government spiraling out-of-control, and headed for disaster.

Like Americans, and people of many other nations, the French have promised themselves more money from social programs -- pensions, social security, unemployment insurance & welfare, healthcare, education -- than they are willing to pay for in taxes.

Macron has made awkward efforts to rectify this French-made mess -- through business-friendly moves intended to spur the economy (including tax breaks for the rich, and a reduction of worker protections), and tax hikes on the rest of France to slow the ballooning national debt.

But these moves have only infuriated the French public, already struggling under declining fortunes and the highest taxes in Europe.

Much of the French public reacted like spoiled children being told that they have to clean up their own bedroom's mess before they can have lunch -- but also with some predictable anger at Macron's seeming clueless insensitivity to their concerns, and his absence from domestic affairs -- as the politically inexperienced Macron suddenly found himself in demand as a "world leader," burdened with global duties traditionally borne by the President of the United States.

It's been a long time coming. And it actually started over 15 years ago.

ONCE UPON A TIME...

Following World War II, the French -- long a powerful and wealthy people -- grew used to living well, and expected things to always get better -- which they did... until the collapse of the French colonial empire.

In the 1950s'/1960s' drive for independence sweeping across the European colonies in Africa, Asia and Latin America, France lost (or forfeited) control of French IndoChina (Vietnam / Cambodia / Laos), French West Africa (most of the nations in the western lobe of Africa, particularly Algeria), French Guiana (S. Amer.), etc. -- losing substantial strategic position and economic resources.

But the French had excelled in industry in the postwar (after World War II) years, becoming one of the world leaders in industry -- particularly the "aerospace & defense" sector (think "Airbus" and "Falcon" jets, and "Mirage fighters") -- and including energy, medicine, and other high-tech fields. With its substantial agricultural and food processing sector (e.g.: wine, cheese), France was largely the "breadbasket" of Western Europe, its fashion industry led the world, and France's culinary, cultural and romatic appeal made it the world's foremost tourism destination.

And a seldom-murmured resource helped fuel France's economy: bargain-priced immigrant labor from its French-speaking territories and former colonies abroad -- largely relegated to menial-but-necessary jobs, freeing native French workers to engage in better, higher-wage jobs.

And France made up for the colonial losses by developing a "common market" system with their former colonies (similar to the British Commonwealth).

The French got richer and richer. So they spent their wealth on a rich system of socialism, promising secure futures for everyone (presuming that the economic prosperity and growth would go on forever).

It hasn't, of course.

 
THE TROUBLES:

France has had a few key problems, similar to those in most industrial nations, today, including the U.S.:

1.) SOCIAL SUPER-SECURITY - They got hooked on social services (old-age pensions / social security; welfare for the poor; extended unemployment benefits for workers; benefits for veterans; universal healthcare and higher education, etc.), and every politician won by promising more. Finally, they had promised more than the country could (or would) pay for.

2.) INCREASED LONGEVITY - Their population boomed. All that free healthcare and pensions meant that people were living longer and longer, many years after retirement -- and becoming more and more of a drain on social services than expected.

3.) IMMIGRATION - The population boom got a substantial boost from the massive influx of immigrants from former French colonies, and a few other places -- to the point that, today, a fifth of all Frenchmen are of foreign-born parents (particularly Arabs).

At first, the French welcomed them as cheap labor, even as cheap household servants.

But the newcomers -- while doing the toughest, most demeaning jobs of France -- gave birth to a generation of French-born young citizens demanding equal participation in snobbish French society. Surrounded by traditional French citizens rolling in middle-class wealth, the poor immigrant-descended families wanted their fair share of the prosperity they were helping to produce.

Even though immigrants had rather little to do with the loss of French factory jobs (they were mostly lost to automation, growing foreign competition, and Asian outsourcing), the new, different-looking people, clearly visible to French workers, were the easiest "cause" for Frenchmen to see and blame. Friction started.

4.) PROFITABLE WORK BEGAN TO DISAPPEAR: The growth of French commerce and industry started on the backs of French labor, but soon industrial businessmen discovered they could be replaced by...

- a.) AUTOMATION - much cheaper machines -- including robots & computers -- which could work faster, for less money, producing more results. And the wealth from automated production is pocketed by the few who own the machines, and the few workers needed to operate them -- leaving everyone else without;

- b.) IMMIGRATION - replacement with harder-working, less-argumentative and much cheaper immigrants (who may risk losing their work permits, and right to stay in the country, if they "make trouble");

- c.) IMPORTATION - outsourcing jobs to other countries -- particularly Asia (especially China) -- and importing the resulting goods to France. This is driven, in part, by French industrial executives looking to cut costs, but probably more by French consumers who want a good deal (like Americans shopping for cheap Chinese goods at Wal-Mart).

- d.) COMPETITION in GLOBAL MARKETS - from other nations, formerly poor and backward, who had acquired technology (from the industrial nations -- chiefly the U.S., U.K., France and Germany), and began using it to compete with us. American and French airliners, for instance, now face competition from Brazil. Likewise, American, British and French autos and electronics have been largely replaced, throughout the world, by products from Japan, Korea and China. The French still have influence in fashion, but the world mostly buys its clothes, now, from Asia.

Increasingly, French workers had to settle for lower-wage jobs, or none at all. Too many French working-class people, and even upper-middle-class people, fled to France's social services for financial support and other aid, straining the system to the breaking point.

5.) DUE DATE: The bill started coming due. Generations of French people living beyond their means, had drained France dry. This had already happened in Greece, and was happening in other EU. nations -- notably Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland -- but now the French were straining their economy to the breaking point.

6.) ANTI-SOCIAL MEDIA -- and MESSAGES: While all this was going on, a revolution in communications was happening. Originally, France had just a few major newspapers and news magazines, and a couple of TV and radio networks, which supplied the French with news and information. These few media had the French media market to themselves, and were proud and powerful institutions, with good reputations to uphold.

To join their newsrooms, you generally had to be pretty intelligent, credible, sober and responsible. While hardly ideal, most of these media outlets were (for France) relatively moderate, rational, and reliable.

Guided by a fairly sober media (and substantial public education systems), the French, following World War II, had long been a fairly sober, sensible people -- erratic, perhaps, by British, German and American standards, but nevertheless a very substantial stabilizing force in world affairs.

But the explosion of "new media" -- chiefly via the internet, but also a profusion of TV and radio stations and networks -- created a massive overpopulation of media outlets, triggering a flurry of desperate competition among all media for "a slice of the pie" of the nation's viewers.

At the same time, there were so many media outlets -- and so many of them so cheap-and-easy to start or join (particularly on the internet) -- that any Tom, Dick or Harriet could get to be a broadcaster (or internet-caster). The only problem was that they needed advertisers in order to survive -- and advertisers only advertise in media outlets that have an audience.

So, small media outlets (particularly including internet bloggers), with limited resources, increasingly began to carve out narrow niches that they could command, by catering to one narrow segment of society, or one simple, popular theme, and tried to dominate that market or topic.

This meant that every segment of society, every political faction, every issue, had it's own media outlets catering exclusively to them. And, to keep their target audience happy, they constantly stroked that segment of society, and told them the lie we all want to believe, ourselves, and hear from others:

"You deserve better. You're not at fault for anything. No, you're a victim.

And all those OTHER people are to blame for it all."

French society -- like many of the rest of the world's industrial and internet-connected societies -- began to simply come apart at the seams, with small media outlets (and copycat politicians) turning each segment of French society against every other.

HOT ELECTION:

The passions and propaganda and political fragmenting intensified to near-explosion during the last election, in which moderate-conservative Macron only very narrowly defeated right-wing nationalist Marine LePenn (a coddler of neo-Nazis).

That a coddler of Nazis could come close to winning the Presidency of France -- one of the three nations most thoroughly ravaged by Nazi Germany in World War II -- would have been unthinkable until now. But now, the WWII generation has died out -- and, with them, the vivid memories of the horrors of Nazism.

Yes, the civilized Macron won, but only barely. And immediately upon ascending to the Presidency, he was faced with dealing with three cataclysmic international events:

THE WORLD COMES APART:

A.) TRUMPISM:

The election of Donald Trump essentially collapsed the long-established 'new world order' in which the U.S. was the reliable and trusted "leader of the free world."

Trump began reneging on every key recent international agreement and relationship the U.S. had organized -- such as the Paris Climate Accords, the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, NAFTA and more -- many involving France through NATO, the EU, the U.N., or other bodies.

A U.S. president, for the first time ever, threatened to pull out of NATO, of which France was one of the principal powers. Trump egged on Brexit (see below), OK'd global warming, turned a blind eye to growing Russian mischief in Europe, ridiculed democratic leaders of his allies (eventually even ridiculing Macron), and heaped praise upon the authoritarian leaders of their enemies.

For the first time in living memory, the U.S. was withdrawing from leadership of -- or even normal participation with -- the rest of "the free world," creating a shocking world leadership vacuum that most directly left Britain, France & Germany to carry the "free world" leadership load -- as Russia and China eagerly moved in to exploit the opportunity and fill the void wherever they could.)

B.) BREXIT:

Britain decided to pull out of the European Union (E.U.). One of the key "Big Three" countries that gave the European Union its bedrock strength and stability, the U.K. suddenly had a hissy-fit, and declared it was bailing out -- leaving France and Germany to shoulder a much greater load -- at the same time as the southern EU countries were going broke, in need of EU bailouts.

France and Germany, as the remaining leaders of the EU, were forced to deal with the resulting crisis: the disconnection and extraction of one of the three main economies of Europe from the rest of the economically-integrated EU.

Brexit is especially painful for France, because so much of their industry (such as Airbus) is deeply entangled in joint partnerships with the U.K. -- both through inter-dependent industrial operations, and through integration with Britain's world-leading financial system.

C.)   SYRIAN REFUGEES,
          RISING IMMIGRATION
              & EURO-NATIONALISM:

The U.S. and the E.U. refused to intervene effectively in the massive civil war in Syria, while Russia stepped in to prop up the losing Syrian dictator Assad. The resulting mass slaughter -- over a half-million dead -- drove millions of Syrians to flee for their lives.

This triggered an explosion of frantic refugee emigration from the Middle East -- turning almost entirely to the only place within reach that could support them: Europe.

Initial reasonable acceptance of these desperately endangered people, by most of Europe, generated hope in other desperate people throughout the Middle East and Africa -- fleeing war, tyranny, persecution, starvation, or simple poverty -- and suddenly hundreds of thousands of them began struggling to reach Europe.

This resulted in a humanitarian crisis, as tens of thousands set to sea in rickety overloaded boats,
many sinking -- drowning thousands.
(As of Dec. 2018, an estimated 13,000 men, women and children have drowned in the Mediteratnnean Sea, trying to reach Europe.)

At the same time, frustrated, unemployed (or underemployed) working-class Europeans (including Frenchmen) began griping about the influx of strangers from different cultures, adding burdens to their nations' social services, and posing possible competition for the remaining European jobs.

Several high-profile terrorist incidents, committed by a handful of Muslim immigrants (or their European-born descendants) -- killing, in all, dozens of Europeans and foreign tourists, particularly in France -- further antagonized indigenous Europeans.

Ruthlessly opportunistic media and politicians began fanning the flames of suspicion and resentment, into the rising fire of bigotry and nationalism (the emotional plague that also created World War II).

Actually, it's not just France:
 
Bigotry and nationalism are on the rise, globally, fueled by populist politicians and media.

Here are some examples (I may have gotten a few of these somewhat inaccurately or incompletely):

• Britain ("Brexit")

• Spain ("Catalan independence")

• The Netherlands (nearly elects right-wing neo-Nazi leader)

• Greece (riots over E.U.-forced belt-tightening)

• Portugal (about like Greece)

  

• Italy (right-wing anti-immigrant President)

• Sweden (ditches a century of liberal leadership for right-wing nationalists)

• Poland (elected right-wing authoritarian President)

• Hungary (elected right-wing authoritarian ant-immigrant President)

• India (elected right-wing anti-Muslim / anti-immigrant Hindu nationalist Prime Minister)

• Korea (ousting Prime Minister and long-ruling conservative party, bringing in populist liberal)

• Japan (rising populist conservative, increasingly militaristic)

• Philippines (openly brutal, murderous populist conservative President)

• Brazil (impeachment and imprisonment of populist liberal President, replacement with populist neo-facist President)

• The United States.

  ---

LEADERSHIP VACUUM:

SO... the few responsible, sober world leaders who remain in the major powers of the free world -- now down to just France's Macron and Germany's Merkel (who just lost her leadership post) -- must now shoulder the burden of sober leadership in world affairs.

This leaves Macron shouldering a burden normally carried by the President of the United States (yet Macron must do the work without the American President's far greater power and resources).

That has left Macron almost completely swamped with urgent foreign affairs matters.

But as he tries, day and night, to save the world for Freedom and Civilization, he's been too busy looking OUTside France, and not busy enough looking IN at its frustrated masses, and tending their needs and wants, and stroking their feelings.

Not tending the home fires has let them get out-of-control.

The French public are furious about it. (Macron's approval rating, among the French, is at an abysmal 28%.). And now they're pitching the same hissy-fit that Americans did by nominating Hillary and Donald, and that the British did by spitting on Europe with "Brexit," and that other coutries have done by...[etc.]

---------------

In all those historically moderate, traditionally fairly-stable countries, that I listed above, the tide has shifted to passionate populism, and/or bitter bigotry (against minorities at home, and/or in nationalistic hostility towards foreigners).

Whether the public, in those countries, has recently voted for the leftists, or for the right-wingers, they nearly all have gone for "populist" leaders, lately, who tell the voters whatever they want to hear.

And what we all want to hear from our leaders, nowadays, is:

"You're a victim, and those OTHER people are the perpetrators. I'll fight them for you."

To ensure that the public is listening, these media outlets, and politicians, scream:

"LOOK OUT, THEY'RE COMING TO GET YOU !!!"

Nothing gets your attention like that easy, effective lie.
And nothing will make you more violently hostile to others.

This isn't exactly new. Politicians do this all the time.

What IS new, this time, is that there is a whole new world of communications, in which media is fragmented into countless little outlets -- even a single crackpot individual, like me, can have a 'blog read round the world -- with each striving to reach a narrow segment of society.

To please their one targeted segment of society, they tell sympathetic and flattering distortions, exaggerations, half-truths and other lies about their target audience, while hysterically raving about the horrors of everyone else.

And thus this new media system -- largely unaccountable (and often even untraceable) -- sets every segment of society against every other.

THE 'DEPRESSION-WAR SYNDROME'

There are times in world history when a huge wave of this kind of fragmented, self-centered, self-pitying, paranoid, resentful, bigoted and hateful thinking takes over, and drives a nation -- or a region, or the whole world -- stark raving mad.

It's most likely to happen when a sizeable amount of the world's people feel their futures are slipping into disappointment.

Notable research by the University of Michigan, years ago, showed that one, and only one, factor consistently predicted the outcome of U.S. presidential elections: Whether people felt their economic situation was improving or deteriorating. The party in power was rewarded or punished accordingly.

The Great Depression, of the 1930s, made Germany and Italy susceptible to populist facists who whipped up the blaming of others -- Jews, Communists, Russians, Poles, homosexuals, etc. -- into a sweeping hatred of foreigners and minorities that exploded into civil violence, mass atrocities and World War II.

Today, we have the confluence of factors and frustrations that I noted above -- driven largely by the development and spread of technology faster than human civilization can adapt and adjust.

It's further aggravated by:

• the global population boom (now at over 7 BILLION people);

• the greedy, careless and destructive harvesting and ravaging of the Earth by the last 200 years of reckless technological consumption of natural resources
  -- resulting in...

  

• the erosion and contamination of the Earth, and its ecosystem,
  (where we all must live,
  and on which we all must depend)
  -- resulting in...

• the rapidly emerging climate change, destroying, decaying, or distrupting the natural habitat for all living things, including people (particularly in the regions that refugees and migrants are fleeing)
  -- resulting in...

• the displacement of millions...

...so that NOW
    there are MORE people,
        surviving on FEWER resources,
            in WORSE conditions.
                all over the world.

These things make people uncomfortable, cranky, angry, frustrated, desperate and violent -- especially among the young, who had the least to do with creating the problems, and the least power to change them, yet have the greatest burden to bear as a result.

There are times like this, when so much is at stake, for everyone -- yet everyone simply hunkers down and thinks only of themselves and "my own kind," and turns on everyone else. And the trouble begins.

At some point, people either calm down and work out their differences, or they come to blows -- even to global holocaust.

Let's hope that we all grow up, and sober up, soon.
And not just in France.

~ RH